New Study Estimates 2009 Swine Flu Death Toll About 10 Times Higher

• Original reports of 2009 swine flu deaths were 18,449

• 2009 swine flu pandemic affected more younger people

• New WHO estimate of swine flu deaths called “best estimate”

A new study by the WHO on the 2009 swine flu pandemic estimates the death toll as being between 123,000 and 203,000, approximately 10 times higher than original estimates.  The World Health Organization, or WHO, considers the original reported number of deaths to be a “gross underestimate.”

The reasons behind the under-reporting are thought to be due to not all suspected cases of death being tested and confirmed, the virus not being recognized in some instances, and some deaths being classified as caused by other reasons due to subsequent complications.

Original reports of the 2009 swine flu death toll to the WHO were 18,449.  These cases were confirmed by lab results.  Those with the highest mortality rate were in those under age 65.  Death rates in Central and South America far exceeded those in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, by as much as 20 times.

The new study on the 2009 swine flu pandemic incorporates vital statistics from many countries.  “This study confirms that the H1N1 virus killed many more people globally than originally believed.  We also found that the mortality burden of this pandemic fell most heavily on younger people and those living in certain parts of the Americas.” said lead author Lone Simonsen, PhD, a research professor in the Department of Global Health at the George Washington University School of Public Health and Health Services.

The new estimates on the 2009 swine flu death toll were reached after reviewing data from 20 countries which represent 35 percent of the world population.  The information studied was the weekly virology and cause-of-death mortality data for 2005 through 2009.

Next, the information gathered was input into a multiple imputation model in which they were able to enter the data collected, along with economic, health, and geographic data to generate worldwide estimates.

Even though this study was conducted in a thorough manner, the WHO claims that even these estimates are most likely low.  However, Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy states that “It is the best estimate we’re going to get in terms of worldwide mortality.”